Nonlinear model for the carotid artery disease 10-year risk prediction by fusing conventional cardiovascular factors to carotid ultrasound image phenotypes: A Japanese diabetes cohort study Academic Article uri icon


MeSH Major

  • Anesthesia
  • Gastroenterology
  • Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic


  • © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Motivation: This study presents a novel nonlinear model which can predict 10-year carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes by fusing nine traditional cardiovascular risk factors (ethnicity, gender, age, artery type, body mass index, hemoglobin A1c, hypertension, low-density lipoprotein, and smoking) with five types of carotid automated image phenotypes (three types of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), wall variability, and total plaque area). Methodology: Two-step process was adapted: First, five baseline carotid image-based phenotypes were automatically measured using AtheroEdge™ (AtheroPoint™, CA, USA) system by two operators (novice and experienced) and an expert. Second, based on the annual progression rates of cIMT due to nine traditional cardiovascular risk factors, a novel nonlinear model was adapted for 10-year predictions of carotid phenotypes. Results: Institute review board (IRB) approved 204 Japanese patients’ left/right common carotid artery (407 ultrasound scans) was collected with a mean age of 69 ± 11 years. Age and hemoglobin were reported to have a high influence on the 10-year carotid phenotypes. Mean correlation coefficient (CC) between 10-year carotid image-based phenotype and age was improved by 39.35% in males and 25.38% in females. The area under the curves for the 10-year measurements of five phenotypes IMTave10yr, IMTmax10yr, IMTmin10yr, IMTV10yr, and TPA10yr were 0.96, 0.94, 0.90, 1.0, and 1.0. Inter-operator variability between two operators showed significant CC (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: A nonlinear model was developed and validated by fusing nine conventional CV risk factors with current carotid image-based phenotypes for predicting the 10-year carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes which may be used risk assessment.

publication date

  • January 2019



  • Academic Article


Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/echo.14242

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