Validation of a prediction rule for development of rheumatoid arthritis in patients with early undifferentiated arthritis. Academic Article uri icon

Overview

MeSH

  • Adult
  • Antirheumatic Agents
  • Arthritis, Rheumatoid
  • Autoantibodies
  • Biomarkers
  • Disease Progression
  • Early Diagnosis
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Peptides, Cyclic
  • Prognosis
  • Rheumatoid Factor

MeSH Major

  • Arthritis

abstract

  • To validate a model which predicts progression from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA, in a Canadian UA cohort. The prediction rule, comprising variables which are scored from 0 to 13, with higher scores reflecting an increased risk of RA, was applied to baseline characteristics of all patients with UA. Progression to RA was determined at 6 months. 105 patients were identified. By 6 months, 80 (76%) had developed RA while 25 (24%) had developed another diagnosis. Number of tender and swollen joints, rheumatoid factor positivity, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide positivity, poor functional status and high disease activity were associated with development of RA (p<0.01). Median prediction score was 8.0 for progressors, 5.0 for non-progressors. With these cut-off points, 18 (72%) patients with scores < or =5 did not develop RA, while 35 (97%) with scores > or =8 did develop RA. High scores in our cohort predicted those who progressed to RA by 6 months. Baseline scores > or =8 corresponded with higher rates of progression.

publication date

  • September 2009

has subject area

  • Adult
  • Antirheumatic Agents
  • Arthritis
  • Arthritis, Rheumatoid
  • Autoantibodies
  • Biomarkers
  • Disease Progression
  • Early Diagnosis
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Peptides, Cyclic
  • Prognosis
  • Rheumatoid Factor

Research

keywords

  • Journal Article
  • Validation Studies

Identity

Language

  • eng

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1136/ard.2008.092676

PubMed ID

  • 19015211

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 1482

end page

  • 1485

volume

  • 68

number

  • 9